{"id":3598,"date":"2022-10-01T16:15:47","date_gmt":"2022-10-01T16:15:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/uninomadasur.net\/?p=3598"},"modified":"2022-10-01T16:15:47","modified_gmt":"2022-10-01T16:15:47","slug":"el-cierre-de-la-tijera-y-los-beneficios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uninomadasur.net\/?p=3598","title":{"rendered":"El cierre de la tijera y los beneficios"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Por Michael Roberts<\/strong><\/p>\n<section class=\"field-body\">El crecimiento de los beneficios corporativos globales se dirige hacia el sur, seg\u00fan el an\u00e1lisis de los economistas de JP Morgan.\u00a0JP Morgan estima que, despu\u00e9s de aumentar un enorme 89 % (promedio m\u00f3vil del 4T) en 2021, las ganancias corporativas globales se moderaron a un 24 % a\u00fan s\u00f3lido anualizado hasta el 2T de 2022.\u00a0Y estiman que\u00a0<em>\u201cel nivel de ganancias netas est\u00e1 un 17% por encima de su tendencia previa a la pandemia, pero a\u00fan as\u00ed compensa la p\u00e9rdida de ganancias por la pandemia\u201d. <\/em>Sin embargo, JP Morgan espera\u00a0<em>\u201cuna desaceleraci\u00f3n en el crecimiento de las ganancias en los pr\u00f3ximos trimestres a medida que la inflaci\u00f3n disminuya mientras los mercados laborales permanecen ajustados.\u00a0La presi\u00f3n adicional proviene del aumento de las tasas de endeudamiento corporativo a medida que los bancos centrales presionan con el ciclo de ajuste m\u00e1s pronunciado en d\u00e9cadas\u201d.\u00a0<\/em>Las tijeras de una futura recesi\u00f3n (ca\u00edda de ganancias y aumento de las tasas de inter\u00e9s) est\u00e1n comenzando a cerrarse.<\/p>\n<p>Durante la recuperaci\u00f3n posterior a la pandemia, los m\u00e1rgenes de ganancias corporativas (la diferencia entre los ingresos y los costes por unidad de producci\u00f3n) alcanzaron m\u00e1ximos de varias d\u00e9cadas a medida que el aumento de la inflaci\u00f3n impuls\u00f3 el poder de fijaci\u00f3n de los precios de las empresas mientras los salarios languidec\u00edan.<\/p>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/translate.google.com\/website?sl=en&amp;tl=es&amp;hl=es&amp;client=webapp&amp;u=https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof1.png?w=548\" alt=\"\" width=\"779\" height=\"380\" data-attachment-id=\"21438\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"prof1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof1.png?w=548\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof1.png?w=300\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof1.png\" data-orig-size=\"548,267\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/14\/the-closing-scissors-and-profits\/prof1\/\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p>Pero las cosas est\u00e1n cambiando en 2022. Los m\u00e1rgenes de beneficio se reducen a medida que aumentan los costes de producci\u00f3n y se ralentiza el crecimiento de los ingresos.<\/p>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/translate.google.com\/website?sl=en&amp;tl=es&amp;hl=es&amp;client=webapp&amp;u=https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof2.png?w=553\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"415\" data-attachment-id=\"21439\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"prof2\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof2.png?w=553\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof2.png?w=300\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof2.png\" data-orig-size=\"553,294\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/14\/the-closing-scissors-and-profits\/prof2\/\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p>Cuando desglosa por sectores, JP Morgan encuentra que cada uno de los 10 sectores que componen la econom\u00eda total muestra una desaceleraci\u00f3n en el crecimiento de las ganancias desde los m\u00e1ximos de varias d\u00e9cadas alcanzados en 2021, aunque solo cuatro han experimentado una contracci\u00f3n total desde principios de a\u00f1o.\u00a0Aunque el auge de las ganancias en 2021 fue generalizado en todos los sectores, los datos dejan claro que la mayor parte de las ganancias se produjeron en energ\u00eda y materias primas, incluidos los alimentos.\u00a0Y ah\u00ed es donde se producen las ca\u00eddas m\u00e1s grandes.<\/p>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/translate.google.com\/website?sl=en&amp;tl=es&amp;hl=es&amp;client=webapp&amp;u=https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof3.png?w=559\" alt=\"\" width=\"779\" height=\"458\" data-attachment-id=\"21440\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"prof3\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof3.png?w=559\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof3.png?w=300\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof3.png\" data-orig-size=\"559,329\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/14\/the-closing-scissors-and-profits\/prof3\/\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p>En el pasado, he construido un \u00edndice para medir las ganancias corporativas globales.\u00a0Mi \u00edndice es un promedio ponderado por el PIB de las ganancias corporativas interanuales de cinco pa\u00edses (EEUU, Jap\u00f3n, China, Alemania y el Reino Unido).\u00a0Este es un universo m\u00e1s peque\u00f1o que el compilado por los economistas de JP Morgan, que realizan un seguimiento de las ganancias corporativas de MSCI de 29 pa\u00edses.\u00a0Eso suena mejor, pero hay algunas advertencias serias a tener en cuenta en el \u00edndice de JP Morgan.\u00a0Primero, se basa en las ganancias declaradas en las cuentas de la empresa que siempre exageran las ganancias.\u00a0Mi \u00edndice se basa en mediciones de ganancias m\u00e1s precisas del gobierno nacional.\u00a0Y segundo, JP Morgan mide el cambio en esas ganancias en un promedio m\u00f3vil de 4 trimestres, no a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o para cada trimestre.\u00a0Eso tiende a hacer que los cambios hacia arriba y hacia abajo sean m\u00e1s exagerados que las mediciones a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>En mi modelo, el cambio en las ganancias corporativas globales hasta el primer semestre de 2022 se ve as\u00ed:<\/p>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/translate.google.com\/website?sl=en&amp;tl=es&amp;hl=es&amp;client=webapp&amp;u=https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof4.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof4.png?w=1024\" alt=\"\" data-attachment-id=\"21441\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"prof4\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof4.png?w=750\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof4.png?w=300\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof4.png\" data-orig-size=\"3761,2446\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/14\/the-closing-scissors-and-profits\/prof4\/\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p>Varias cosas emergen de este cuadro.\u00a0Primero, el crecimiento de las ganancias corporativas globales se detuvo incluso antes de que estallara la pandemia de COVID y se produjeran los bloqueos y el colapso del comercio internacional (-2.1% interanual en el cuarto trimestre de 2019).\u00a0En segundo lugar, la enorme recuperaci\u00f3n estad\u00edstica en 2021 (que alcanz\u00f3 un m\u00e1ximo del 54,4 % en el segundo trimestre de 2021) ahora ha dado paso a una r\u00e1pida desaceleraci\u00f3n de las ganancias interanuales en 2022 (a solo el 6,2 % en el primer semestre de 2022).<\/p>\n<p>\u00bfC\u00f3mo se compara el modelo de JP Morgan con el m\u00edo?<\/p>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/translate.google.com\/website?sl=en&amp;tl=es&amp;hl=es&amp;client=webapp&amp;u=https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof5.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof5.png?w=1024\" alt=\"\" data-attachment-id=\"21442\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"prof5\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof5.png?w=750\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof5.png?w=300\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof5.png\" data-orig-size=\"3761,2451\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/14\/the-closing-scissors-and-profits\/prof5\/\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p>Teniendo en cuenta las diferencias en los datos entre los dos modelos, todav\u00eda es visible una tendencia bastante similar.\u00a0Hubo un auge en las ganancias despu\u00e9s de la mini recesi\u00f3n de 2016, luego una ca\u00edda en 2019 (anunciando una nueva ca\u00edda en la inversi\u00f3n y el PIB en las principales econom\u00edas) y luego la ca\u00edda de la pandemia (aunque mis cifras muestran un peque\u00f1o aumento).\u00a0La recuperaci\u00f3n de 2021 es m\u00e1s moderada con mis datos que con los de JP Morgan.\u00a0La primera mitad de 2022 es comparable.<\/p>\n<p>Ambos \u00edndices muestran lo que concluye JP Morgan,\u00a0<em>\u00aben relaci\u00f3n con su tendencia previa a la pandemia, las ganancias globales acumuladas desde la pandemia todav\u00eda est\u00e1n deprimidas en m\u00e1s del 20%\u00bb. <\/em>Y ahora el crecimiento de las ganancias est\u00e1 desapareciendo.\u00a0JP Morgan pronostica que\u00a0<em>\u201cse espera que el poder de fijaci\u00f3n de precios disminuya, particularmente en energ\u00eda, mientras que es poco probable que las presiones salariales se moderen tan r\u00e1pido.\u00a0Combinado con el aumento de las tasas de inter\u00e9s, los m\u00e1rgenes de ganancia caer\u00e1n, lo que afectar\u00e1 las ganancias en general\u201d. <\/em>Lo que he llamado en el pasado,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession-wordpress-com.translate.goog\/2022\/06\/10\/the-scissors-of-slump\/?_x_tr_sl=en&amp;_x_tr_tl=es&amp;_x_tr_hl=es&amp;_x_tr_pto=wapp\">las tijeras de la depresi\u00f3n (aumento de las tasas de inter\u00e9s y ca\u00edda de las ganancias),<\/a>\u00a0est\u00e1n comenzando a cerrarse.<\/p>\n<p>\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 es importante seguir el cambio en los beneficios del sector capitalista a nivel mundial?\u00a0Como he argumentado en numerosos lugares,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession-wordpress-com.translate.goog\/2021\/06\/17\/profits-call-the-tune-2\/?_x_tr_sl=en&amp;_x_tr_tl=es&amp;_x_tr_hl=es&amp;_x_tr_pto=wapp\">los beneficios son la fuerza motriz de la inversi\u00f3n capitalista<\/a>\u00a0y, por lo tanto, del crecimiento del empleo y los ingresos.\u00a0Si la rentabilidad de la inversi\u00f3n capitalista cae y eventualmente conduce a una ca\u00edda de los beneficios totales,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession-wordpress-com.translate.goog\/2019\/11\/11\/hm1-marxs-double-edge-law\/?_x_tr_sl=en&amp;_x_tr_tl=es&amp;_x_tr_hl=es&amp;_x_tr_pto=wapp\">es el indicador m\u00e1s fuerte de una ca\u00edda inminente en la producci\u00f3n capitalista.\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession-wordpress-com.translate.goog\/2010\/12\/29\/profits-and-investment-in-the-economic-recovery\/?_x_tr_sl=en&amp;_x_tr_tl=es&amp;_x_tr_hl=es&amp;_x_tr_pto=wapp\">La relaci\u00f3n cercana (aunque retrasada) entre los beneficios y la inversi\u00f3n est\u00e1 bien establecida por varios estudios, incluido el m\u00edo.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan est\u00e1 ciertamente convencido de la relaci\u00f3n entre los beneficios y la inversi\u00f3n, con los primeros liderando a los segundos:\u00a0<em>\u201c<\/em><em>esperamos que el crecimiento de los beneficios corporativos se desacelere a\u00fan m\u00e1s en los pr\u00f3ximos trimestres.\u00a0Esta debilidad se reflejar\u00e1 negativamente en el gasto de capital empresarial\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/translate.google.com\/website?sl=en&amp;tl=es&amp;hl=es&amp;client=webapp&amp;u=https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof6.png?w=556\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"382\" data-attachment-id=\"21443\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"prof6\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof6.png?w=556\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof6.png?w=300\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/prof6.png\" data-orig-size=\"556,272\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/14\/the-closing-scissors-and-profits\/prof6\/\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"bioautores\">\n<div class=\"field-autores-descripcion\">\n<div class=\"field-autor\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sinpermiso.info\/autores\/Michael-Roberts\">Michael Roberts<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"field-descripcion\">habitual colaborador de Sin Permiso, es un economista marxista brit\u00e1nico, que ha trabajado 30 a\u00f1os en la City londinense como analista econ\u00f3mico y publica el blog The Next Recession.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"field-label\">Fuente:<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"field-fuente inline\">https:\/\/thenextrecession.wordpress.com\/2022\/09\/14\/the-closing-scissors-and-profits\/<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"field-label\">Traducci\u00f3n:<\/span>G. Buster<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Por Michael Roberts El crecimiento de los beneficios corporativos globales se dirige hacia el sur, seg\u00fan el an\u00e1lisis de los economistas de JP Morgan.\u00a0JP Morgan estima que, despu\u00e9s de aumentar un enorme 89 % (promedio m\u00f3vil del 4T) en 2021, las ganancias corporativas globales se moderaron a un 24 % a\u00fan s\u00f3lido anualizado hasta el [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.4 - 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